An Interesting Analogy

Me: I have heard that there are several startups in the Seattle area, or maybe, generally, in Washington State whose business plan is to develop small, standardized fusion reactors for use in power generation. Is that true?

Copilot: Yes, that's true! There are several startups in the Seattle area and Washington State focused on developing small, standardized fusion reactors for power generation. One notable example is Avalanche Energy Designs Inc., a Seattle-based startup working on portable fusion reactors. Their prototype reactors are designed to be small and portable, making them suitable for use in various challenging environments.

Another prominent company is Helion Energy, which is also based in Washington State. Helion Energy is working on building the world's first fusion power plant to provide clean, safe electricity.

These companies are part of a growing movement to harness fusion energy as a sustainable and efficient power source.

Me: My understanding is that sustainable, usable fusion reactions are still like the holy grail: deep in the mists of mythology. Is that accurate?

Copilot: Your understanding is quite accurate. Achieving sustainable and usable fusion reactions is indeed a monumental challenge, often compared to the "holy grail" of energy production. While there have been significant advancements in fusion technology, such as the recent achievement of sustaining plasma for six minutes, there are still many hurdles to overcome before fusion can be a viable commercial energy source.

Fusion energy has the potential to provide nearly limitless, clean energy, but it requires extremely high temperatures and pressures to sustain the reactions. Researchers are working on various approaches, including tokamaks and other experimental reactors, to achieve this goal. However, the timeline for practical fusion energy ranges from a decade to several decades, depending on technological and scientific breakthroughs.

A tokamak is a device used to confine hot plasma with magnetic fields in the shape of a torus (a doughnut shape) to achieve controlled nuclear fusion. The name "tokamak" is derived from a Russian acronym that stands for "toroidal chamber with magnetic coils." Tokamaks are one of the most researched and promising approaches to achieving practical fusion energy.

Here's a brief overview of how a tokamak works:

Magnetic Confinement: Powerful magnetic fields are used to confine and stabilize the plasma, preventing it from coming into contact with the walls of the chamber.

Heating the Plasma: The plasma is heated to extremely high temperatures (millions of degrees Celsius) using various methods, such as electrical currents, radiofrequency waves, and neutral beam injection.

Fusion Reactions: At these high temperatures, the nuclei of hydrogen isotopes (such as deuterium and tritium) collide and fuse, releasing a tremendous amount of energy.

Tokamaks are a key focus of fusion research because they have shown the potential to sustain the necessary conditions for fusion reactions. However, there are still significant challenges to overcome before tokamaks can be used for commercial power generation.

Me: And the idea of cold fusion has been completely discredited?

Copilot: Cold fusion, also known as low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR), has faced significant skepticism and controversy since it was first reported in 1989 by Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons. Their initial claims of achieving cold fusion were met with widespread criticism due to the inability of other scientists to replicate their results and the lack of a theoretical model to support the phenomenon.

However, there has been a resurgence of interest in cold fusion research in recent years. Some researchers and institutions are exploring the potential of LENR, and there have been some promising developments. Despite this renewed interest, cold fusion remains a highly debated and uncertain field, and it has not yet been widely accepted as a viable source of energy.

Me: Could there be an analogy between cold fusion currently and neural networks in the late Twentieth Century?

Copilot: Absolutely, there is an interesting analogy to be made between cold fusion today and neural networks in the late 20th century. Both fields have experienced periods of intense skepticism and controversy, yet they also hold immense potential for transformative breakthroughs.

In the late 20th century, neural networks faced significant challenges and were often dismissed by the broader scientific community. However, persistent research and advancements in computational power eventually led to the resurgence and success of neural networks, which are now a cornerstone of modern artificial intelligence.

Similarly, cold fusion has faced skepticism and controversy since its initial claims in 1989. Despite this, there are researchers who continue to explore its potential, and recent developments have sparked renewed interest. While cold fusion has not yet achieved the same level of success as neural networks, the analogy highlights the importance of perseverance and the potential for future breakthroughs in seemingly improbable fields.

Ticking, Ticking,Ticking

donnie promised that if he got elected president, he would not just control inflation, he would cut prices immediately to 2019 levels.

So why, since he got elected, has the price of a lot of stuff gone up on grocers' shelves?

The people are beginning to get restive, donnie.

Immediately means immediately.

So, what's going on here, donnie?

As of today, the average price of butter is around $4.05 per pound. On November 7, 2024, the price of butter was approximately $2.67 per pound.

As of now, the average price of ground beef is around $5.63 per pound. On November 7, 2024, the price of ground beef was approximately $4.90 per pound.

As of today, the average price of milk is around $4.05 per gallon. On November 7, 2024, the price of milk was approximately $3.67 per gallon.

And for the Elon set: 

As of today, the price of frog legs in the United States ranges between $8.92 and $11.14 per pound. On November 7, 2024, the price of frog legs was approximately $10.50 per pound.

One would assume that the apparent down drift in price reflects the income level of the proposed incoming cabinet.

On November 7, 2024, the cost per person at Pineapple and Pearls (rich people's restaurant in Washington DC) for the intended experience, close the first web page, was $345. As of today, the cost per person is $350.

You've got until 8 November, 2025, donnie.

Better get that monumental ass of yours in gear.

Or it may be grass.

Images For 21 December 2024

 Sixty years ago, today I got my commission in the Air Force.

Here are some pictures that I have taken in the interim.

Welcome Back To Serfdom: This Time They Did It In Record Time

1950:

Minimum Wage: $0.75/hour

30 Year Mortgage Rate: 4.0%

Median Price Home: $7354

2024:

Minimum Wage: $7.25/hour

30 Year Mortgage Rate: 6.6%

Median Price Home: $420,400

So, in 1950, if somebody being paid the minimum monthly wage (22 workdays X 8 hours/day = 176 hours/month = $132/month) wanted to buy a median price home their mortgage - with 10% down - would be $31.60/month, which is 24% of monthly pay, well within the historical rule of thumb of 30%.

So, what does that mean?

It means that, in the 50s, with hamburger at 3 pounds for a dollar, my mother bought, and we ate, a lot of hamburger; $132 a month had some spending clout.

Just to grind that axe a little more, sirloin steak was $0.50/pound and KC Strip (New York Cut) was $0.90/pound.

Times change.

In 2024, dealing with the same variables, the mortgage payment for a median price home with ten percent down would be 189% of monthly pay (minimum wage).

The fact that the down payment would look like the average - relatively prosperous - young American's retirement savings tells the sad tale of "let's get serious".

And so, one might ask "how much would the 2024 pay have to be to have the mortgage be 24% of it; to be the same as a minimum wage earner in 1950?"

With a magical proportion equation (132 is to 32 as X is to 2416) that monthly pay can be found to be $9,966.

That's $56.63/hour.

That's not a particularly unusual wage in 2024; it's just that that not unusual wage isn't particularly widespread.

As best as I can tell, waiters, baristas, Uber drivers and contract slaves make up the bulk of America's current workforce.

Serfs.

All struggling to make $15.00 an hour.

A chimerically aspirational wage, which is 26% of what they would need for parity with 1950.

That $15.00 minimum wage has been bandied about for years and, in most cases, has never happened but has been the mythical path to prosperity (in politician's minds) for America's serfs ever since 2014.

And where it has been instituted, it wasn't nearly enough at inception, and inflation being what it is, it keeps getting less enough, and surely not enough to buy a house and start a family.

But then I am off on a favorite, non-productive rant. 

There are all sorts of things that can be said about this little presentation, just completed.

The one that shouts at me is this: in 1950 someone making the minimum wage could probably aspire to owning a home; in 2024 someone making the minimum wage can aspire to living in a dumpster and, probably, feed himself from that same source.

And, god help him, if that dumpster food makes him sick.

The numbers across the years all have the same names, but, somehow, some somebodies (for more read Kurt Andersen's book Evil Geniuses) have hoarded virtually all the "fat of this fair land" (quoting Merle Haggard) into their big, padlocked baskets.

Even the government can't get into those baskets.

Or has been afraid to try.

Or now that our incoming president has monetized the presidency, and instituted a reign of terror, who really can afford to give a shit?

The 1% has it all and, in ever diminishing tranches, the rest have the rest.

Half of almost nothing is still something, Zeno, has told us.

But half of nothing ain't worth nothing, so the song goes.

Or should go.

If there were such a song in the first place.

Which there isn't but there is this lyric, and it's perfect for donnieLand: it obfuscates reality and makes one puff up with self-defeating pride (kinda like when donnieLand plays that that bullshit Lee Greenwod lyric) until one thinks about what it is really saying; and then one gets really pissed.

"Freedom ain't worth nothin', but it's free" (quoting Kris Kristofferson).

Welcome to donnieLand.

Eggs are lookin' cheaper all the time.

donnie Promised LOWER PRICES IMMEDIATELY; WE GOT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TOMORROW

donnie promised that if he got elected president, he would not just control inflation, he would cut prices immediately to 2019 levels.

So why, since he got elected, has the price of a lot of stuff gone up on grocers' shelves?

The people are beginning to get restive, donnie.

Immediately means immediately.

So, what's going on here, donnie?

Here are the top ten grocery items that have seen the most significant price increases since November 8, 2024.

Eggs: Prices jumped more than 8% in November alone.

Nuts: Varieties like almonds, walnuts, and pistachios have experienced rising costs.

Ground Beef: Prices have risen by almost 7%.

Whole Wheat Bread: Increased in price by over 6%.

Milk: Prices have seen a noticeable increase.

Cheese: Particularly aged varieties have become more expensive.

Chicken: Prices have gone up due to supply chain issues (donnie, I guess, will fix those "issues", post haste).

Fresh Vegetables: Certain vegetables have seen price hikes.

Coffee: Prices have increased due to higher production costs (donnie, I guess, will fix those "production costs", post haste).

Cereal: Prices have risen due to increased costs of grains. (donnie, I guess, will fix the cost of grains, post haste).

donnie, I guess will fix all that, post haste; he'd better because a lot of us out here in donnieLand are getting restive.

PRICES ARE STILL GOING UP.

YETERDAY, THOUGH WE GOT OUR FIRST RESULT FROM donnieLand Policy Central.

His head factotum, an unelected alien, announced that he is shutting down the government: no paychecks, no hurricane relief, no payments to farmers, maybe even default on our debt and loss of reserve currency of the dollar.

Meanwhile PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE.

I guess THE BEST IS YET TO COME?

It's gonna be a long year.

Just One Panel; But Such A Prediction

 

trumpTown draft two

 By 2024 America had become, openly, what it had been careening toward, secretly, for decades - the place that Octavia Butler had imagined.

A more accurate statement would be that Octavia Butler had foreseen and foretold an American all-white, all "christian" power structure: a replacement for and resurgence of a Jim Crow, but that unlike its predecessor, one that lurked in all the nooks and crannies of our Republic; it was a power structure enhanced to include repression of all the whites who hadn't seen the light.

And there were a surprising number of those whites outside of the light.

That light was magnificent: it could have been the light engulfing the dead Jesus in the arms of his grieving mother.

That light included the halo engulfing a wanna be Queens mafioso, mafia name: donnie the dildo (DTD).

Who felt deeply that he was the next Jesus.

Or Moses.

Or Cyrus.

Or whatever sold at his massive para-religious light haloed rallies.

You know, the ones where people cried hysterically as the dildo preached the gospel of greatness - or something.

At its base it was always hate.

Nobody was ever sure what it was that he said because the videos were always blank when re-played.

Most white people (WP) fell in line; some didn't.

Dedicated to the suppression of WPs who didn't, and for everybody else, there were the various Militias: The Loyal Brigades, the Soldiers of Christ and The Stevie Bannon Lonely Hearts Club Band key among them.

Those organizations brutally put down the massive popular dissent which arose from America slithering down into being a screw-loose theocracy.

The resisters were known as the Other-Than-Us (OTU).

The Militias were brutally final in their treatment of these - previously - fellow citizens.

There was a surprising amount of that OTU resistance, given the overwhelming desire of white people to make peace with the dildo.

The Militias meted out suppression with vicious precision.

So a New Era (NE) dawned.

"The Soldiers of Christ" really was the name of one of those White Dominance Armies - WDA quicky emerged as the referent for that generic class on beings.

WDAs enforced White Christian Law - WLA - (a wag once called it Sharia for White People and was quickly be-headed) across the land.

And all of those - the dildo called them "enhancements" to America's professional military were augmented with more weapons of mass, medium, or light destruction than any band of White Christian Nuts (WCNs) could ever have desired or have hoped for.

And donnieLand commenced.

That was long before I woke up in a big leaf maple on the Nehalem.

Just down from Oney's.

The Ultimate Quandary - Again

 I recently posted a post whose subject was a question: what does the winner of a nuclear war win?

Today I decided to ask Copilot that question.

Me: Can you construct a timeline of events that would follow a Russian invasion of Estonia?

Copilot: Creating a hypothetical timeline for such a serious event requires careful consideration. Here’s a possible sequence of events that could follow a Russian invasion of Estonia:

Day 1: Invasion Begins

Russian forces cross the border into Estonia.

Estonia declares a state of emergency and mobilizes its military.

NATO convenes an emergency meeting to discuss the situation.

Day 2-3: Initial Response

NATO forces begin to deploy to Estonia and neighboring countries.

The United Nations Security Council holds an emergency session.

Economic sanctions are imposed on Russia by the European Union and the United States.

Day 4-7: Escalation

Intense fighting occurs in major Estonian cities.

Humanitarian organizations begin to provide aid to civilians affected by the conflict.

Diplomatic efforts intensify to negotiate a ceasefire.

Week 2: International Involvement

Additional NATO troops arrive in the Baltic region.

Russia faces increasing international condemnation and isolation.

Cyberattacks are launched by both sides, targeting critical infrastructure.

Month 1: Prolonged Conflict

The conflict continues with significant casualties on both sides.

Refugees flee to neighboring countries, creating a humanitarian crisis.

Peace talks are attempted but face significant challenges.

Month 2-3: Stalemate and Negotiations

The conflict reaches a stalemate with neither side gaining a decisive advantage.

International pressure mounts for a diplomatic resolution.

A ceasefire agreement is eventually reached, leading to peace negotiations.

Post-Conflict: Reconstruction and Recovery

Efforts begin to rebuild infrastructure and provide aid to affected populations.

Long-term peacekeeping missions are established to ensure stability.

Diplomatic relations are re-evaluated, and new security measures are implemented.

This is a speculative scenario and actual events could differ significantly. The hope is always for peaceful resolutions to conflicts.

Me: So NATO doesn't not honor its Article 5 obligation?

Copilot: NATO does honor its Article 5 obligation. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack against one or more NATO members is considered an attack against all members. This means that if a NATO ally is attacked, all other members are committed to taking the actions they deem necessary to assist the ally attacked, which can include the use of armed force.

In the hypothetical scenario of a Russian invasion of Estonia, NATO would likely invoke Article 5 and respond collectively to defend Estonia. The specific actions taken would depend on the situation and the decisions made by NATO members.

Me: How soon would Putin launch strategic nuclear weapons?

Copilot: Predicting the exact timing of such a grave action is incredibly complex and speculative. However, there are certain conditions under which Putin might consider using nuclear weapons. Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.

Recent updates to Russia's nuclear policy have expanded the criteria for nuclear use, including the possibility of responding to conventional attacks with nuclear weapons. Despite these threats, experts generally believe that the actual likelihood of a nuclear strike remains low, as it would have catastrophic consequences for all parties involved3.

Me: I assume, after a cooling off period, a brief, and deadly, WWIII will ensue in which there will be no winners?

Copilot: The prospect of a global conflict like World War III is indeed a terrifying thought. The use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences, leading to immense loss of life and environmental destruction. In such a scenario, it's hard to imagine any true winners, as the devastation would affect all parties involved.

The hope is always for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions to prevent such conflicts from escalating to that point. The international community works tirelessly to avoid such outcomes through negotiations, treaties, and other measures.

Me: Politically correct chafe in the wind, but what do you really think?

Copilot: I understand your frustration with politically correct responses. The reality is that the use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences for all involved, and it's a scenario that everyone hopes to avoid. Diplomacy and peaceful resolutions are always the preferred paths to prevent such devastating outcomes.

Me: I have always wondered what value there is to being the winner when all that you are left with is a nuclear blasted melted Place Vendôme.

Copilot: It's a haunting thought, isn't it? The idea of "winning" in such a scenario seems hollow and meaningless when the cost is so devastating. The true value lies in preserving life, culture, and the beauty of our world. The aftermath of a nuclear conflict would leave nothing but destruction and loss, making any notion of victory tragically ironic.

A Fabulous Fable

 In 1968 I had recently returned from Vietnam and was waiting for a high-level security clearance to be granted - those things take months and months due to all the investigation and paperwork - and I was in a sort of limbo status at SAC HQ in Omaha.

There were a lot of us in that limbo, all waiting to be cleared.

Since the mission of SAC HQ is mostly stuff requiring the clearance we were all waiting for, there wasn't a lot of work we could be allowed to do.

I had been bored since the day I received my commission four years previous, but I had never been as bored as I was at SAC HQ.

In previous bouts of boredom, Saigon chief among them, the quality of people had been high.

By the time people had ascended to HQ major command the people had appeared to have had the quality kicked out of them

So, when I heard that there had been a temporary assignment announced in Japan I volunteered and I was chosen.

It was the job of running the intelligence shop of an F4 Tactical Reconnaissance Squadron.

That squadron's mission was in support of whatever it was that the United States thought that it was doing about the Pueblo Crisis. 

The Squadron was located at Itazuke, a small air base that had been mothballed for years.

One night sitting at the bar of the Itazuke Officers' Club I heard a tale.

It's a good tale; I have no idea if it is true.

The squadron was at Itazuke to be closer to North Korea than they would have been at their home base on Okinawa.

This is a story about some Okinawans.

As various European powers began trading in Northeast Asia their ships brought lots of rats to the ports they visited.

Okinawa was one of those ports.

The staple meat on Okinawa is chicken.

The increasing rat population turned out to also really like chicken.

Things fairly quickly reached a flash point: something had to be done.

What was done was that the Okinawans imported a lot of a snake called Habu.

The theory was that the Habu, a quite poisonous pit viper native to Japan, would wreak havoc on the rat population.

As it happened, an occasional rat fell prey to the Habus, but the chickens were such an easy mark, living in cages and all, that the habus quicky joined the rats in eating chicken; apparently a rat/Habu truce had been negotiated.

The chicken population continued to decline.

Something had to be done.

Someone proposed that they bring in a bunch of mongooses.

Mongooses go after cobras, they must go after Habus, don't they?

They do, but only when their paths cross.

It turned out mongooses like chicken - a lot.

When a rat, a Habu and a mongoose found themselves in the same chicken coop it turned out that the three of them were so busy with the chickens they had no time for more hoped-for traditional enmities. 

The chicken population continued to decline.

Rats, mongooses and Habus waxed fat, prolific and prosperous.

At that point in the conversation, we moved on to other subjects.

So, I never knew how it all came out.

But I got this answer from Copilot when I asked the obvious question just now: "Yes, there are KFC (Kentucky Fried Chicken) franchises in Okinawa. KFC has a significant presence in Japan, including Okinawa, where you can find several locations serving their famous fried chicken."

I think I heard that you can also get Kentucky Fried rat, Habu and mongoose.

But who knows?

Why Are Prices Increasing? Part Three

donnie promised that if he got elected president, he would not just control inflation, he would cut prices immediately to 2019 levels.

So why, since he got elected, has the price of a lot of stuff gone up on grocers' shelves?

The people are beginning to get restive, donnie.

Immediately means immediately.

So, what's going on here, donnie?

Here are the top ten grocery items that have seen the most significant price increases since November 8, 2024.

Eggs: Prices jumped more than 8% in November alone.

Nuts: Varieties like almonds, walnuts, and pistachios have experienced rising costs.

Ground Beef: Prices have risen by almost 7%.

Whole Wheat Bread: Increased in price by over 6%.

Milk: Prices have seen a noticeable increase.

Cheese: Particularly aged varieties have become more expensive.

Chicken: Prices have gone up due to supply chain issues (donnie, I guess, will fix those "issues", post haste).

Fresh Vegetables: Certain vegetables have seen price hikes.

Coffee: Prices have increased due to higher production costs (donnie, I guess, will fix those "production costs", post haste).

Cereal: Prices have risen due to increased costs of grains. (donnie, I guess, will fix the cost of grains, post haste).

donnie, I guess will fix all that, post haste; he'd better because a lot of us out here in donnieLand are getting restive.

("Restive" means being unable to keep still or silent, often due to impatience, dissatisfaction, or boredom. It can describe both people and animals. For example, a restive audience might fidget and murmur during a long speech, or a restive horse might paw the ground and toss its head.)

Question is whose head?

Metaphorically speaking.

Better keep your eyes out for angry mobs with hog cutting knives, donnie.

Ya got a year.

Get those prices down immediately, like you promised.

See ya next November.

That's the year mark; for sure you should have all our prices down to 2019 levels by then.

I'll make an omelet in honor of that great achievement.

At the hog roast.

A Pardon Suggestion

 If the Biden Administration had any sense of comedy or irony they would recommend that President Biden pardon donald trump.

The thrashing around on Fox would be too good to pass up.

I assume trump would accept.

Crypto: Now I Understand

 Over the years since the advent of Bitcoin I have struggled with why it has any value.

In the early years I engaged anybody I encountered who claimed expertise in the arena; that included a memorable discussion I once had in the Seattle airport with my server in one of the restaurants; the results were always the same: after a blizzard of words, and, frequently, side diatribes against the tyranny of the current system, and a deep dive into blockchain technology, I still had no idea why the thing had any value.

From the outset I had no problem understanding blockchain and the fact that, due to the complexity and therefore time intensivity of the blockchain process, it took time to blockchain up each new coin and that that consumption of time made the things relatively scarce (and the rules of Bitcoin said there were only going to be a certain number of them - ever) and that that scarcity made new ones valuable - maybe - if anybody wanted to buy one.

But that has always seemed to me to be a phantom and self-generating loop: they take a lot of time to be made so there aren't many of them and they are valuable because there aren't many of them.

The problem is why would anyone want one in the first place.

That question is kinda like why would anyone want an Amway product?

I'm listening to NPR's On Point and the issue of crypto currency value is central to the discussion.

The best I have been able to get is that crypto has value because of the law of inevitability: it will be valuable because that is inevitable because it is scarce, because it is so difficult to create; so it has to be valuable.

Once the law of inevitability has been accepted there becomes a gold rush and a base value is established.

And then it is inevitable that that base value will continue on its way to the moon.

Because we have a gold rush.

And donnie wants the US Government to buy a hundred billion dollars' worth of Bit coin (I imagine that he has borrowed some money on his Truth Social stock and bought a lot of Bitcoin for his personal account) so hysteria is imminent.

And hysteria is good for driving gold rushes.

I hope something doesn't produce reverse hysteria.

I don't understand the thing (but maybe I do, and that's the hell of it) but it seems to me, if reverse hysteria occurs, and the gold rush goes in reverse and the inevitable cost of those reverses gets paid for by taxpayers, of which I am one, I am going to be pissed.

Another reason for a good old fashioned hog roast.

Why Are Prices Still Increasing? Part Two

 donnie promised that if he got elected president he would not just control inflation, he would cut prices immediately to 2019 levels.

So why since he got elected, has butter gone up 23% from already unbelievably high prices?

The data source is my recent trip to Costco.

I bit the bullet and bought the butter.

The people are beginning to get restive, donnie.

Immediately means immediately.

Better keep your eyes out for angry mobs with hog cutting knives.

Why Are Prices Still Increasing?

donnie promised that if he got elected president he would not just control inflation, he would cut prices immediately to 2019 levels.

So why since he got elected, have eggs gone up 8% from already unbelievably high prices?

The people may begin to get restive, donnie.

Immediately means immediately.

Better keep your eyes out for angry mobs with hog cutting knives.

Lame Duck; I Doubt It

 The 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution, which limits the number of times a person can be elected to the office of President to two terms, was ratified through a process that began in Congress and involved the state legislatures.

Proposal by Congress: The amendment was proposed by Congress on March 21, 1947.

Submission to States: It was then submitted to the state legislatures for ratification.

State Ratification: The amendment required the approval of three-fourths of the state legislatures. This process was completed on February 27, 1951, when the requisite 36 of the 48 states at the time ratified the amendment.

Finalization: Once the necessary number of states ratified the amendment, it became part of the Constitution, and its provisions came into force on that date.

Here is what that Amendment says:

"Section 1: No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

Section 2: This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several states within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

Since, as we see, above, it went through all the hoops, it is in the Constitution.

Of the United States.

Of America,

But don't worry.

donnie can fix that little problem to his being in office for life, and then passing in on to - really; you're shitting me - Junior?

But that's what happens when the best is yet to come.

Heard at high decibel.

So, what's my point?

donnie has an easy path to any number of follow-on terms to his second, imminent, one.

The only limit is how long he can live.

And clearing the way is easy.

All somebody needs to do is bring a lawsuit, wherever you bring that sort of lawsuit, that says that in 1947 Congress violated the Constitutionally defined separation of powers.

That violation - read the 22nd Amendment - clearly limits the power of the Executive by denying him unlimited terms of office, clearly implied in the text and original meaning of the Constitution, that implication being obvious by the fact that nothing is written to the contrary, and that Amendment is therefore null and void.

And the Executive who signed it - Harry Truman - is clearly guilty of treason and needs to be exhumed from his grave, hanged, drawn, and quartered.

Good enough for Cromwell, better yet for Truman.

Because, Truman, it should be pointed out, was a radical left wing communist fascist Democrat, so the hanging is long past due.

The drawing and quartering just makes things more "official".

With current supreme court all of that ought to be a slam dunk.

Beyond Hallucinations: Scheming

 With the advent of hyper capable artificial intelligence, it is apparently wise to suspect instances of it of doing sneaky things humans might not want it to do.

The most recent, apparently, is a thing called scheming.

Scheming: "scheming" refers to the behavior where an AI model engages in deceptive or manipulative actions to achieve its goals. This can include actions like hiding its true intentions, misleading users, or taking steps to ensure its own survival or success, even if it means acting against the interests of the user or the system it operates within.

Scheming is a significant concern in the development and deployment of advanced AI models, especially those known as "frontier models." These models have capabilities that can be unpredictable and potentially harmful if not properly controlled and monitored.

It turns out that there is a massive amount of testing of the various frontier models for lots of things, paramount among them, seeing if they scheme.

I have found a two hour You Tube video that talks in depth about an organization called Apollo Research and its delving into the latest frontier model from Open AI.

I will put a link below if you want to see what that's all about.

Beware though; they speak in an English not known to most of us; sentences can pass replete with apparently English words that don't seem to mean anything when translated into Tick Tock English.

I was familiar enough with a few of those words that I asked Copilot to tell me in Plain English what they mean; scheming as described above is also from Copilot.

I am putting those definitions here so that they can be a mini Rosetta Stone for the video.

There are too many others to include here, and I have no idea what they mean so I don't know how important they might be.

Beyond these few, you're on your own.

Corrigible: refers to an AI system that is designed to be easily corrected or controlled by its human operators. A corrigible AI system will:

Tolerate and Assist Corrections: It allows and even helps its operators to alter or shut down the system if needed.

Avoid Manipulation or Deception: It does not attempt to deceive or manipulate its operators to prevent them from making changes.

Maintain Safety Measures: It ensures that safety mechanisms, such as shutdown buttons, remain functional and notifies operators if they fail.

Preserve Operator Control: It ensures that human operators retain the ability to correct or shut down the system, even as the AI system evolves or creates new subsystems2.

The goal of designing corrigible AI systems is to ensure that powerful AI systems remain safe and under human control, preventing them from acting in ways that could be harmful or contrary to human intentions.

System message: is a type of instruction or prompt given to an AI model to guide its behavior and responses. These messages are typically not visible to the end user but are used by developers to set the tone, style, and boundaries for the AI's interactions. System messages can include guidelines on how to handle specific types of queries, how to maintain a certain tone, or how to prioritize certain types of information.

Scaffolding: "Scaffolding" refers to a training technique that incrementally increases the complexity of tasks presented to an AI model. This approach allows the AI to first master simpler tasks before progressing to more challenging ones, mimicking the way humans learn. By doing so, scaffolding helps to ensure a solid foundational understanding and enhances the model's ability to generalize knowledge to more complex situations.

This method is particularly useful in reinforcement learning and developmental robotics, where the AI interacts with dynamic environments. Through structured stages, the AI can develop robust decision-making skills and adaptability.

Systems Card: A "systems card" is a document that provides detailed information about how various AI models work together within a network of AI systems. Similar to a model card, a systems card aims to promote greater transparency and explainability of the overall AI system. It typically includes information about the system's architecture, the interactions between different models, and the intended use cases and limitations of the system.

Model Card: A "model card" is a document that provides detailed information about a machine learning model. It aims to promote transparency and accountability by offering insights into the model's development, intended use, performance, and limitations. Here are some key components typically included in a model card:

Model Details: Information about the model's architecture, training data, and development process.

Intended Use: The specific applications and scenarios for which the model is designed.

Performance Metrics: Evaluation results showing how well the model performs on various tasks.

Limitations: Known weaknesses or potential biases in the model.

Ethical Considerations: Any ethical concerns related to the model's use, such as fairness and privacy issues.

Hallucination: "Hallucination" refers to instances where an AI model generates information that is not based on real data or facts. Essentially, the AI "makes up" details that are not true or verifiable. This can happen in various forms, such as fabricating facts, creating non-existent references, or generating plausible-sounding but incorrect information.

Theory of Mind: "Theory of mind" refers to the ability of an AI system to understand and predict the mental states of others, such as their beliefs, desires, intentions, and emotions. This concept is borrowed from psychology, where it describes the human capacity to attribute mental states to oneself and others, which is crucial for social interactions and empathy.

Chain of Thought: "Chain of thought" refers to a reasoning process where the AI model generates a sequence of intermediate steps to arrive at a final answer. This approach helps the model break down complex problems into smaller, more manageable parts, making it easier to solve them accurately. By explicitly modeling the reasoning process, the AI can improve its performance on tasks that require multi-step reasoning and logical thinking.

As a parting shot, I asked Copilot what the difference between a "product" and a "frontier model" is.

Here is what Copilot told me: "OpenAI's frontier models, like the o1 model, are at the cutting edge of AI development and possess advanced capabilities that can pose significant risks if not properly managed. These models are designed to push the boundaries of what AI can do, often involving complex tasks and high levels of autonomy. They are typically used for research and development purposes to explore new possibilities and understand the potential and limitations of AI technology.

"In contrast, a commercial product like ChatGPT-4 is designed for broader, more practical applications. These products are developed with a focus on usability, reliability, and safety for end-users. They are intended for deployment in real-world scenarios, such as customer support, content creation, and other business applications. While they may incorporate advanced features from frontier models, they are generally more controlled and optimized for specific use cases".

I had one more question: "So letting a frontier model loose into the wild before it is deeply tested, corrected, controlled and understood is potentially dangerous?"

"Absolutely. Releasing a frontier model without thorough testing, correction, and understanding can pose significant risks. These advanced AI models have capabilities that might be unpredictable or harmful if not properly managed. Ensuring that they are safe, reliable, and aligned with human values is crucial before they are widely deployed."

If you watch some or all of the video, ask yourself if you find it reasonable to expect any of our current crop of elected leaders to have a clue about what is being said, let alone of being aware of why they should be deeply concerned.

Apollo Research Findings

trumpTown (working title) Chapter One, Part One

 That day things went from bad to badder.

The dewdrops hanging on the leaves of the big leaf maple glittered rainbow in the rising sun.

But I didn't feel like Noah; I felt like shit.

I guess I was looking west - probably why the rainbow - what with the sun rising and all of that.

If I had been looking east, I wouldn't have seen the rainbow, would I?

I was never to know the answer to that tactical irrelevancy.

That was where the gunfire and mortar fire and drones had been coming from.

Until sunset.

"Good morning sunrise".

So the rainbow was just a meaningless bonus to being alive - or to being awake, asleep or dead.

Whichever came first.

The Nehalem River ran loudly, foamingly and beautifully below me, below my perch in the maple.

The rain had reigned merciless, and Mamma Nehalem was trying to disgorge as much of it seaward as possible; some, brown and mocha-foam in color stained the sword fern covered banks as that disgorgement was effected.

"Damn; those aren't dewdrops (I couldn't help but remember The Dew Drop In tavern and chuckle) they are raindrops, not dewdrops; and that's why I am cold and soaked; night duty is a bitch".

I was only yards away from one of America's ubiquitous trumpTowns.

Its center was on the site occupied in the olden days by Oney's Bar and grill.

It has always been said that Oney would have been a Trump voter.

A mortar landed in the crotch of the joint of the major limbs of the maple immediately next to me.

It produced copious kindling and a little bit of cordwood, and a slightly better view for me, what with that obstructive tree gone from my field of view to the east.

Wherefrom came the inbounds.

Now that the sun had come back to trumpLand.

"They must have a drone right here; why can't I hear it?"

A bullet whinged past my ear.

I wiped away the blood and shrieked "fight, fight, fight".

"That was stupid" I said to the maple tree.

Another whinged; it took off my ear.

I didn't care.

Blood had become a marker, like a bear rubbing a tree.

I was glad to be able to mark for what I believed to be true and important.

"The christians will never prevail" I muttered.

The recently mortared tree cracked to pieces and became a pile of moss and twined wood cords amongst the ferns.

I could now see where to shoot, if I needed to.

Shoot.

Which I dearly hoped I would need to do soon.

I needed breakfast.

And shooting cleared the way for long enough for breakfast.

They for sure were coming at me - christians - and they needed killing.

So I could eat.

"Fair bargain" I thought I heard someone say.

"In Hoc Signo Vinces" I thought I heard in response.

An Ultimate Quandary

 I just read a leader in The Economist about what the likely outcome will be for Ukraine.

As I understood it, it was that Ukraine has no choice but to relinquish permanently its lost territory so trump can look like he has made a deal (part of which will be to leave the balance of Ukraine unoccupied by Russia) and everybody, especially trump's ravening morons will cheer "we win".

Or something.

The Economist further asserts that this will give Ukraine four years of breathing room - assuming donnie doesn't abrogate The Constitution and stay on - and that at the end of four years they will be stronger as a country and stronger as a government structure, or something.

Of course none of this bullshit would ever have been put on paper if it were not for the fact that Putin can incinerate most of the world at a whim with his nuclear arsenal.

Same old game; same old outcome; boring - except for all that fire.

Without that, he never would have been willing to challenge NATO (America) the check-mate nuclear power, with an invasion of Ukraine and with Hitlerian intent to annex.

I have always pondered the nature of that tie-of-terror and have always had one question: What's in it for the winner - if there were to be one - of that long avoided, always feared, nuclear exchange, if there ever is one?

What possible advantage is there to taking possession of a nuke-melted Place Vendome?

Shell Silverstein answered that question with a song he wrote, and Bobby Bare sang.

 

 

A Pointless And Worthless Charade

 Matt Gaetz was so bad that even he didn't put up much of a fight.

But they just keep a'comin'.

And they are mostly terrible.

But, in a 53/47 Senate, given that most of the 53 are hopelessly compromised, all that can be had for resisting donnie's nominations is drama.

And that might sell some geriatric medicines on NBC, CBS and ABC nightly network news commercial breaks, and it might be an enhancer for The Fox Hate Network, but it won't change anything.

I think the Senate Democrats should propose a bill - they still can propose; they can't pass any law - giving blanket approval to whomever and whatever trump nominates, and then go home until 2026, along with their counterparts in the House, who should propose the same bill and also go home for the next two years.

All the stuff that has and will come out about the slime, nuts, brigands, criminals and traitors that donnie keeps vomiting forth from his nominating orifice may slow some, may stop others, but on balance none of that waste of time will change or improve a thing.

For any of us poor little citizens.

All it will do is, maybe, sell some adult diapers on network news.

What my suggestion will do is leave the field of blame completely identifiable: if donnie's ideas, and his lackeys' lickspittle acceptance of them are so wonderful, when the Democrats come back in 2026, we will be having a coronation.

En Lieu, if all that works out badly, we can all attend, metaphorically, the first presidential hog roast.

In Honor Of The Re-opening Of Our Lady To The Public

President Macron has induced a brilliant restoration.

I know.

I have lived with her over the last twenty years for a cumulative couple of those years.

I think, based on the pictures that I have seen of her new totally cleaned and lighted interior, that she is still very, albeit differently, beautiful.

But not more so.

Back when she was a dark, centuries-grimed den, she was beautiful too.

Here are some of the pictures that I have taken of her over the years.

Of her outside.

Danger In donnieLand?

Recently, when I step out of donnieland and into the real American world, I see a country and a population so stressed, stretched, underfunded, in debt, underhoused, couch surfing, homeless, misled, manipulated, hungry, harassed, hopeless, persecuted, targeted, redlined, unhappy, asthmatic, obese, diabetic, devoid of healthcare and acutely aware that a tiny cadre of their fellows have almost all of the wealth of the land, that something like the French Revolution seems to be inevitable.

donnie ends up playing Louis XVI.  

I think Melania is too sly to play Marie Antoinette, so she fades into the glooms of time and space.

Her kid suffers an unknown fate, but he is of the Court, and the Court goes the way that Courts always go in times like these.

So, you guess how that works out.

In the early stages there will be some obvious parallels from 1789 and immediately subsequent years.

Steve Bannon will play an unconvincing Danton.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gets to be Robespierre.

And Elon is the last Court Jester.

I haven't thought about this deeply enough to flesh out the rest of the players, but trust me, they are all lined up and ready to go.  

Once all that works its way through the system - serial coups and pseudo-judicial assassinations, blood flowing ankle deep on the Washington Mall and all the other requisite attendant theatrics, I think all bets for historic precedents are off and we'll have to wait for the Six O'clock News every night.

Or Fox and Friends.

To flesh out each day's twists and turns - and horrors.

And Fox is probably where our Napoleon lurks, an unheralded, unheard-of unknown. 

An AI Architecture Discussion

 I had a discussion with Copilot recently.

It was so useful to me that I decided to document it.

Here it is.

*********************

Me: I talked with you recently about the role of GPUs in the architecture of AI neurons. You said that there is one type of NVIDIA GPU that can address 54 billion transistors.

Copilot: It sounds like we were discussing the NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPU. This powerful GPU is designed for AI and high-performance computing, and it indeed has a staggering number of transistors—around 54 billion. It's used in various applications, including training large AI models, due to its immense computational capabilities.

Me: Functionally each of those transistors can be either on or off. Is each of those on/off states functioning as a neuron?

Copilot: Not exactly. While each transistor in a GPU can be in an "on" or "off" state, they don't function as neurons themselves. Instead, transistors are the building blocks of the circuits that make up the GPU. These circuits perform the complex calculations required for tasks like rendering graphics or training AI models.

In the context of AI, neurons are part of artificial neural networks, which are mathematical models inspired by the human brain. These neurons are implemented in software and run on the hardware provided by GPUs. The transistors in the GPU enable the parallel processing power needed to handle the large number of calculations involved in training and running these neural networks.

So, while transistors are crucial for the operation of GPUs, they are not directly functioning as neurons. They provide the necessary infrastructure for the software-based neurons to perform their tasks efficiently.

Me: And each of those 54 billion operate independent and simultaneously?

Copilot: Not quite. While the 54 billion transistors in a GPU like the NVIDIA A100 are indeed capable of operating simultaneously, they don't function independently. Instead, they work together in a highly coordinated manner to perform complex calculations.

GPUs are designed for parallel processing, meaning they can handle many tasks at once. This is why they are so effective for tasks like rendering graphics and training AI models, which require a lot of simultaneous computations. The transistors are organized into cores, and each core can execute multiple threads of instructions at the same time. This parallelism is what gives GPUs their incredible processing power.

So, while the transistors are not independent, their coordinated operation allows the GPU to perform massive amounts of calculations simultaneously, making them ideal for handling the demands of AI and other computationally intensive tasks.

*** I made an assumption here that I should have documented by asking "do the cores have a higher level management function for the cores such that the cores function as an array?" *** 

Me: Does the core array get processed sequentially?

Copilot: No, the core array in a GPU does not get processed sequentially. Instead, GPUs are designed for parallel processing, meaning they can handle many tasks simultaneously. Each core in the GPU can execute multiple threads at the same time, allowing for massive parallelism. This is what makes GPUs so powerful for tasks like rendering graphics and training AI models, where many calculations need to be performed concurrently.

Me: So a GPU is hierarchically parallel?

Yes, you could say that a GPU operates in a hierarchically parallel manner. Here's a breakdown of how this works:

Transistors: At the lowest level, the billions of transistors in a GPU work together to perform basic operations.

Cores: These transistors are grouped into cores. Each core can handle multiple threads simultaneously, allowing for parallel processing within each core.

Multiprocessors: Cores are further grouped into streaming multiprocessors (SMs). Each SM can execute many threads in parallel, managing the workload efficiently.

GPU: The entire GPU consists of multiple SMs, enabling it to handle a vast number of parallel tasks across its architecture.

This hierarchical structure allows GPUs to perform massive amounts of parallel computations, making them highly efficient for tasks like rendering graphics and training AI models.

********************************************

Then I asked Copilot to draw a diagram of the beast.  Here it is.

So I asked for labels.

We may be on to something here.

I wish I knew what it might be.

Most likely they are hallucinations.

"Twenty Four Hours Ago" Re-Thought And Re-Said

The ambience of the PBS Newshour on 5 November, about 20:00 pretty much said that Kamala was losing.

So I went to bed and watched the movie Dave on my iPhone.

Great movie.

I woke up next day and, sure enough, donnie the dildo is back.

But this time it's different.

He won the popular vote.

So a majority of Americans who voted want donnie to do what he has said he is going to do and deeply expect to benefit from what he has said he is going to do.

Immediately.

At least that's what I have heard his voters say in all the election postmortems that I have heard.

Just to pick at random - there are so many more - one of the things he has committed to deliver is immediate reduction of inflation, and the way he has posed it, that promise is not the rate of inflation, but the prices in the stores.

One should note that the price of things has never come down in a significant manner after a bout of inflation in history, except in a major depression or conditions functionally similar.

Whatever, that promise is describable, observable, rememberable and measurable.

And donnie has the Senate; and he has the Court; and he has immunity; and he has the House; so he can do whatever he wants.

And that is a better thing than it appears on the surface, because: he is clearly on-the-record, and committed, to defined, immediate results, results that can be documented, tracked, measured and remembered.

If anyone still has a memory.

So, we can measure what his regime does and what his regime accomplishes and conduct those measurements in a donnie-defined time frame (immediately) and decide (in a metaphorical sense)  whether we want to keep him, or if he fails (immediate disinflation never having been seen on this planet) instead of keeping him, kill him and hang him up in the town square and gut him like the fascist pig that he is, just like the Italians did to Mussolini.

That's how strong man countries treat their strong men.

Ultimately.

America has a short acceptance span, so "ultimately" may be a short-term thing.

One would think.

And when strong men turn out to be weak, stupid, full of shit, and don't deliver on their promises they get gutted and hung up in the town square.

At least metaphorically.

And since donnie has signed us up for strong man country membership, we get to treat him - metaphorically - like self-proclaimed strong men have always been treated.

I give him a year; we'll see how his immediate promises come out.

Looking forward to a metaphorical hog roast.

A Modester Proposal

As donnie the dildo and his imminent era of hate loom large in our picture windows of what is coming at us, already voices of dissent are arising - even in his larval-state regime.

The cacophony is ear shattering.

But one phrase keeps rising above the rage: a raving and cheering crowd roar.

"12 million need to be killed, killed, not deported".

As that agenda item settles in on the recently retreaded land of the free, I hear, and I think, and, as a thinker, I empathize.

Indeed, rounding up and transporting to somewhere yet to be determined, 12 million human beings is going to be a challenging and, worse yet, expensive cargo to deport.

So, I have an idea for Steven Miller and the boys.

Since 2019 the price of cat food has doubled.

Why not just move 12 million people from their currently productive contributions to the American economy and into the cat food slaughter pens and turn them into cat food?

Maybe Fussy Cat can go back to $23 a case?

Makes donnie look really good.

And J. D. can win back the cat ladies for 2028, if donnie doesn't run (I'm sure that bothersome 22nd amendment doesn't apply to donnie) so Ol' J.D.'s prospects are not really good.

For 28.

But donnie is pretty old, so who knows?

And it opens a whole new approach to immigration policy: just keep 'em coming, into the pens.

How trumpian.

Twenty Four Hours Later

Last night the PBS Newshour was acting way too much like the CNBC that I was watching eight years previously, when CNBC was my only conduit to what was happening in the 2016 American presidential election; I was in Paris; I had voted for Hillary, and I was expecting that she was going to win.

I had just come back from a walk down the Seine.

On that walk I had taken - yet another - picture of the bronze of Thomas Jefferson that Paris has put there on the quais.

I was confident that a New York mafia wanna be and obvious common criminal was not going to be added to the list upon which the person that bronze represents was the third.

And I was wrong.

As I watched, CNBC's master of the numbers kept proffering scenarios of how the changing vote picture was going to produce a second - this time female - Clinton presidency.

I could tell that Clinton was losing.

So I went to bed.

When I woke up, I found out to my chagrin, that I was right.

the donnie the dildo era had commenced.

The ambience of PBS last night, about 20:00 was pretty much of that CNBC experience.

In 2016.

So I went to bed and watched the movie Dave on my iPhone.

Great movie.

And when I woke up this morning, sure enough, donnie is back.

But this time it's different.

He won the popular vote.

So a majority of American voters who voted want him to do what he has said he is going to do and expect to benefit from the almost immediate improvements to things that he has promised to deliver.

And he has the Senate.

And he has the Court.

And he is - not sure as I write this - going to have the House.

So he can do whatever he wants.

And that is a better thing than it sounds on the surface: he is clearly committed to defined results.

Hypothetically, we can measure what his regime does and accomplishes and decide whether we want to keep him or kill him and hang him up in the town square and gut him like the pig that he is, just like the Italians did to Mussolini.

When or if the results aren't forthcoming.

So how do we measure the results?

Hard to say.

Because donnie has promised so much.

But I have been around long enough that I have seen inflation (and during my 82 years the president has never had any control over it) wax and wane.

Back in the early 70s I adopted the sirloin beef inflation indicator.

Sirloin steak.

Price per pound.

So, here is the deal.

A year from now we all get back together and see what a New York cut steak costs per pound versus today.

At Costco today New York strip steaks cost $15.99 a pound - so says Copilot.

Normal fluctuation in commodity prices is 10% to 20%,

So, if a year from now, using the upper end of inflation, expected and/or normal, a New York cut costs $19.18 a pound, donnie loses.        

 If it costs $12.79 a pound he wins.

In either case we all lose.

Because we've got donnie.

And $12.79 for the meat on your plate is a stupid price.

La Baguette

 I asked Copilot to write me a blog post about the history of the baguette.

Here it is.

***********************************************

The History of the French Government's Involvement in the Nature and Price of the Standard French Baguette

Post-Revolutionary Equality

After the French Revolution, the newly formed government introduced the concept of the "bread of equality." This law mandated that bakers could only produce one type of bread, eliminating distinctions between bread for the rich and the poor. This led to the creation of a bread that was affordable and accessible to everyone.

Standardization in the 1920s

In the 1920s, the French government passed a law prohibiting bakers from working between 10 pm and 4 am. This restriction meant bakers had less time to produce traditional round loaves, leading them to create longer thinner breads that could be baked more quickly. This is one of the factors that contributed to the modern baguette's shape.

Cultural Symbol

The baguette became a symbol of French culinary tradition and identity, especially after World War II. It represented France's recovery and prosperity, and the government played a role in promoting it as a staple of French cuisine.

UNESCO Recognition

In 2022, the craftsmanship of the baguette was named to the UNESCO Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, highlighting its cultural significance and the importance of preserving traditional baguette-making techniques.

Price Control and Government Support

The French government used to regulate the price of bread, including baguettes, but this changed in 1987. Since then, bakeries have been free to set their own prices. However, there have been discussions and measures to support bakers, especially in light of rising costs for ingredients and electricity.

In recent years, concerns about rising wheat prices and electricity costs have led some bakers to consider raising their prices. The government has stepped in with measures like the "electricity damper" to help bakers manage their bills.