This conversation might have actually occurred.
It might have occurred in the Oval Office.
It might occurred on 20 July 2024.
Here it is:
"Mr. President, George Washington, in a letter to Lafayette in 1788 made an observation that sums up the problem you have managed to crystalize.
He said, 'There cannot, in my judgement, be the least danger that the President will by any practicable intrigue ever be able to continue himself one moment in office, much less perpetuate himself in it; but in the last stage of corrupted morals and political depravity; and even then there is as much danger that any other species of domination would prevail. Though, when a people have become incapable of governing themselves and fit for a master, it is of little consequence from what quarter he comes'.
The fact that seventy-four million Americans voted for trump in 2020 and even more appear to be ready to do so again seems to indicate that 'the last stage of corrupted morals and political depravity' have arrived in America.
And you have let this last stage of corrupted morals and political depravity be the operative factor in who wins, probably the last presidential election in America.
Why is that the operative factor?
Here's why.
As you are acutely aware, a handful of states actually elect the president, not the population of the Unites States.
As was proven in 2016, when the trump campaign's surgical use of the Manafort/Kilimnik Data Base in five of those states induced enough black voters to pass on voting that all five of those states went to donnie, and with them, the presidency.
Because of bad luck and bad decisions, you have likely lost significant tranches of voters in the various groups that constitute your base; that, in those five, six or seven states, will likely have the same effect on your chances of winning those electors as did the Manafort/Kilimnik Data Base in 2016 against Clinton.
Add to that the widespread republican voter repression actions across our nation and you have an unwinnable contest.
Once decent people have been alienated, or winnowed, enough of the "the last stage of corrupted morals and political depravity" are left to tip the balance.
donnie wins; you lose.
And that is not good.
Here, in random order, are what I think have been some of your bad decisions and some of your bad luck.
These things are all having a fatally adverse effect on your chances in the upcoming campaign and election.
Where there is a relationship - bad luck induced by bad decision, or bad decision as a reaction to bad luck, I will make the two immediately adjacent in the list.
The problem with them is that they all have deep influence on your current plight, and they can't be un-done.
Those dice have already been cast.
They can't be un-cast.
So, are you ready?
Good; let's go through them.
Bad Luck: In trump's second impeachment, by verdict day in 2021, the republican party had become so rotten that only seven of the republican senators voted the obvious guilty verdict; that left a deeply wounded and extremely cunning adversary on the playing field ready for violence and mayhem.
Bad Decision: The attorney General you appointed looked good but hasn't panned out.
Bad Luck: The Attorney General you appointed let crucial months elapse before appointing investigative and indictive authority to be brought to the most serious question in the history of our Republic: did the ex-president plan and incite an insurrection? By the time that authority was appointed there was not enough time to find facts, indict and try the case, leaving the therefore un-tried and un-convicted insurrectionist (that deeply wounded and extremely cunning adversary) home free.
Bad Luck: You didn't get to be President until you were 79 years old; that makes you 82 this election year; it is functionally impossible to make a convincing case that your remaining lifespan is highly likely to be the four years of another term in office.
Bad Luck: Kirsten Sinema and Joe Mansion are part of your excruciatingly thin Senate majority. Since they both depend on big business for their office they were unwilling to vote for the most sweeping, and most needed advancement of the social contract since the New Deal; had it passed your place in history and your second term would have been locked; lacking passage, you are totally subject to fate's whimsy and the amount and nature of your luck and the number and quality of your decisions.
Bad Decision: Staying mostly out of sight during term one. Like Reagan, you should have gone to the nation every time the opposition lie machine invented a new lie or blocked another policy; instead you stayed mute in the White House. That harmed not only your strength of position on a daily basis throughout your term, it has also cumulatively left you, at best, vaguely defined; that is not a good place for a second term aspirant to be.
Bad Decision: Choosing Kamala Harris as running mate (better could have been Abrams or Buttigieg).
Bad Luck: Kamala Harris has not caught on. That leaves you needing to argue that not only are you likely to live out a second term, or, if you don't you've got Harry Truman in the wings waiting to pick up the baton. That leaves you talking about abstract hypotheticals instead of meat and potatoes.
Bad Decision: Getting out of Afghanistan without planning for withdrawal with at least Operation Overlord level meticulous planning. The buck still stops with you. That meant that anything short of Swiss watch perfection in withdrawing would be a disaster that you could ill afford to waste time talking about. But that's what you got.
Bad Luck: Twenty years of money, military training and physical, social and financial infrastructure investment collapsed like a house of cards in the face of the return of the Taliban. Here luck intercepts decision: betting on the come because of the investment of all that blood and treasure was a disaster.
Bad Decision: Unconditional support of Netanyahu in his response to the October 7, 2023, massacre of Israelis.
Bad Luck: An otherwise potentially good decision didn't have a chance to really be good because it depended upon the irrational, trapped-animal actions of Netanyahu, a criminal domestically and internationally.
Bad Luck: The republican party has become a mafia-like thing with a godfather-like thing pulling all its strings and making government impossible in the United States.
Bad Luck: An immigration agreement that was a massive step forward for the Country was killed in the house of representatives by the tentacles of that mafia so they could retain a dysfunctional immigration system as a campaign issue.
Bad Luck: A near majority of the American People have entered "the last stage of corrupted morals and political depravity".
So, Mr. President, it looks pretty much like you are toast."
The President just stared at his interlocutor.
"So what's next?"
The presence on the other side of the desk muffled a cough, and then spoke.
"The real answer is I just don't know.
But the only thing I can think of is that we need to figure out damn fast who in the Democratic Party can actually win in 2024.
This must be not only fast, it must also be secret.
And the chosen one needs to be vetted with intensity such as history has never seen; no late breaking surprises can be allowed; no more mistakes can happen.
Of course the Convention needs to be contrived: there should be no announcement of your intention to step down; it must look like an old-fashioned smoke-filled room dog and cat fight with the chosen one coming out nominated.
Of course the narrative of what has happened and how it happened needs to be created and written and agreed to by all the players substantially ahead of time, like right now.
And of course, its promulgation needs to be planned at the level of a streaming service big-buck gamble: every hour/day/week and month of the plot must be flawlessly scripted, understood, rehearsed and incrementally rolled out.
Americans love political drama.
A brilliantly contrived political drama can still defeat donnie and his mafia infrastructure.
So let's get crackin'.
We can still win this thing.
And you can join President Washington as someone who knew when to step down.
For the good of our country."
