Replacement fertility is 2.1.
The U.S. has been running 1.6–1.7 for years.
Immigration has historically been the U.S. demographic engine.
For more than a century, immigration has been the thing that kept:
- the workforce young
- the dependency ratio manageable
- Social Security solvent
Every Trustees’ report for decades has quietly assumed continued net immigration as a stabilizing factor.
If you cut immigration sharply — or reverse it through mass deportation — you remove the only functioning demographic lever the U.S. has left.
Not ideology. Arithmetic.
- Deportation on a large scale accelerates the collapse dynamics
- If you remove millions of working‑age people:
- payroll tax revenue drops
- the worker‑to‑retiree ratio worsens
- trust‑fund depletion accelerates
- the size of the eventual benefit cut increases
This is not speculative.
It’s the same math the Trustees use — just with different inputs.
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