09 November 2021

Finally, I Understand What Is Going On At The Border

 The border of Poland with Belarus, and to a lesser degree with Lithuania and Latvia.

Lukashenka has been importing planeloads of refugees from the various catastrophes afoot in the world.

He gathers them all up in Minsk and then busses them off to the borders referred to.

To date it had seemed that the gambit was designed to sow disquiet in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia: the refugees were escorted into mainly Poland by Belarusian military; the invaded country would intercept them and try to send them back; the Belarusians would resist; a very uncomfortable standoff would ensue.

That's the sum total of what I have understood to be going on over there; I had no idea how such an apparently childish provocation could be policy with any global significance.

That all changed a few minutes ago when I heard that Lukashenka is saying that the growing hoard of human political fodder that he has assembled must be absorbed by the EU; Belarus WILL NOT, accept them; military action WILL OCCUR if the EU resists; and if MILITARY ACTION ensues it will be considered to have been necessitated by a hostile act of war by the EU and that will necessitate Belarus getting the aid of Russia.

And, Lukashenka summarized, "Russia is a great nuclear power, and I can't be held responsible for whatever might happen".

That's, of course, just a rough translation.

So - Crimea was just some foreplay; now Putin is after Poland.

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