AND THE ANSWER ISN'T PRETTY.
57 of 100 senators voted "guilty" in trump's second impeachment trial.
That's really close to guilty.
That's way more than halfway from not guilty.
Since the January 6 insurrection and trump's role in it were the backbone of the prosecution's case for finding donnie guilty, that "way more than halfway" thing, in the face of merciless pressure from the man on trial to find him innocent is a big deal: one might conclude that the truth of the matter is probably the prosecution's case, but that the winner of the matter was the merciless pressure from the person on trial; so the fact that 7 people subject to that merciless pressure nonetheless voted "guilty" might cause one to conclude that "guilty" was indeed the factual truth of the matter.
So if one were one of the many cowering-in-the-Senate-Cloakroom "Pressurees" one would probably not want a genuine bi-partisan commission rooting around in January 6, 2021.
One might really not - no, change "might" to "probably" or perhaps, "surely" - like what the commission would find.